The political market's invisible hand has been directing the electoral choices, even beyond the will of its actors, who have since resigned to the limits imposed by reality. This will define a few applications presidential significant, around the historical parties, and some personal microenterprises.
By Horacio Verbitsky
dreamed unite in a hypothetical presidential runoff vote antikirchnerista. But this probability was lower than the risk of losing his rear and strippers all at the stop. His curious invitation at a press conference to form an opposition front was the only way I found to prepare their withdrawal. Ricardo Alfonsin his presidential bid would be accompanied by strong radical candidates in the two Buenos Aires. But the party bequeathed to him by his father has died in the capital, whether measured by their latest results as the impossible candidate running for this year, and languishing in the province of
Balbin, where in the last two presidential fell from 9 percent Margarita Stolbizer to 5 percent himself Ricardo Alfonsin. Pino Solanas wanted to run for president of Project South and repeat the amazing results you got with that PROS in the Federal Capital . But the quality of votes required for its exquisite proposal only gets into the mysterious Buenos Aires. Claudio Lozano was considered the ideal candidate for the chair once occupied Aníbal Ibarra, but his booming voice uttered invectives apocalyptic antikirchneristas are celebrated only by social sectors who never vote, as did public without sympathy for his ally himself Solanas . closest advisers Macrì convinced him that his best option was to defend the territory it occupies, and from there to try the assault on the nation within four years. Decide it was easier to explain without revealing their weakness. The memories of adolescence porteña prevailed Solanas about their dreams of old age and decided to change the liberator of municipal management, letting others deal with what happens in the outside world is wide and extends beyond the Autonomous City . Before them, Francisco de Narvaez was resigned to a horizon of Buenos Aires, because the Supreme Court not raise the constitutional clause that only allows the presidency to people born in Argentina. Each decided how and where to play by its own convenience and / or limitations, not the overview of all suffer. It prefers a new scheme, whereby the main opposition CFK to have the child Alfonsin as a candidate for president, with Macrì and De Narváez related candidates in the Autonomous City and the province of Buenos Aires . If within two weeks Antonio Bonfatti beat in the primaries radicalsocialistas of Santa Fe, Hermes Binner could aspire to the presidency with Victor De Gennaro as vice, a combination that Solanas participate in the Capital , Stolbizer in the province of Buenos Aires and humorist in Judge Luis Cordoba . This hypothesis has an additional difficulty, that the radical shake: Binner if not the vice of Alfonsin but its competitor, the UCR could break the Santa Fe Progressive Front, which would ensure the victory of ruling party candidate national. All this will be defined by the end of the month. Paper Scissors Stone The downsizing of Solanas Macrì
and also changes the perspective of the elections in Buenos Aires. If the nation will reduce the options in the city increases. Besidesthe populist right and the left chic
be a strong candidate of the ruling National to be known about the legal time limit. The presence of ministers Amado Boudou and Carlos Tomada and former Minister Daniel Filmus is a striking development in a district reluctant government. Another fact that deserves attention is the climate of mutual respect and cooperation among them, reveals the strength of the project to integrate . All three agree that the candidate will decide Cristina , because they agree that what the policy debate is that she drives. She in turn has been handled with discretion, without anointing or offend anyone. Everyone knows the weaknesses of each: the origin of neoliberal Boudou; Filmus 's refusal to order he was a candidate in 2009, saying he had made a commitment to his constituents that expires this year but in 2013 tremendous dialogue with Taken José Pedraza, a few days before he was arrested. But all have prioritized the joint. In the Capital always has reaped what he sowed the national government, not local candidates. The overwhelming Kirchner, 2003 passed without difficulty and worn Ibarra; the beaten Kirchner, 2009 due to a non-party support, which was less than 10 percent. The sympathies of the liberal economy minister occurred in his distant youth college student and since her appointment in the Anses demonstrated a commitment and a seamless identification with the national government. CFK notes, even decisive role in the recovery of the pension system and the universal child assignment and alignment without qualification in the confrontation with Grupo Clarín. The opposition and own some people are outraged kirchnerismo with this statement and list of previous projects AUH, in the plaintive style with the socialists of the last century disdained the laws of the first Peronist because they had raised before. The charge to Filmus would be even less relevant, if the application is not going to decide on presidential preference. Cristina felt abandoned at a crucial moment and not sure I've forgotten. Taken Lo raises other questions: Minister Néstor and Cristina Kirchner , on whose performance in eight years there commendations and no questions, talks to the laughter with the accused for the murder of Mariano Ferreyra on the best way to restrict the entry of contract workers to the railway company UGOFE . It is also salutary tone of chichoneo between brothers, whereas Maximum Kirchner said at the funeral of his father in Rio Gallegos that "to kill that kid in the Constitution also killed my father. I was outraged. All those guys have to go to jail ". According to the transcript of the record, Taken tells the main charge: - My dear! Listen to me one thing, two things that I say. The best defense is a good offense (laughs). PROS PRO The favorite for the first round of voting is still PRO, but now looms as the third competitor in
PROS
Solanas. The statute requires Porteño half plus one vote to declare the head of government, which under current political conditions makes it unlikely that anyone would be imposed in the first round. For the second, each option would cause various partnerships, leadership and the electorate, which may or may not coincide. The invariable question is why would the excluded middle. vs PRO. FPV : In the dispute by withholding, Project South tipped in favor of agricultural employers, and aversion to government. On Thursday died agrónonomo engineer and historian Alberto Lapolla- , former head agrarian South Project. When Lozano voted in the Chamber of Deputies in the sense that claimed the Sociedad Rural, Lapolla resigned, and said that the leader of the Socialist Party Authentic Daniel Abrantes said they could not support the government project because Agrarian Federation had paid presidential campaign Pino Solanas. PROS denied it, but insisted Lapolla as a witness of the discussion. Three years later it is obvious that they had to pay the price for this unnatural alignment and strengthening the CFK government. The southern leaders could negotiate support FPV to change policy commitments and positions or to abstain, but is less likely to rule in favor of Macrì. vs PRO. PROS: With high probability the national government would vote against Macrí
- of mutual convenience. vs FPV. PROS: If the right plain and simple not reached the decisive stage, the diaspora would be tremendous. Might not even speak to the runoff. Its electorate is split between liberal and right señoragordista
- peornista,
- would seek be accepted in FPV. The marginal There are also some applications structured around projects messianic, vengeful or ideological. Today the chances of Elisa Carrio and Civic Coalition Liberating
Cristina
. With absolute intransigence towards everything and everyone expresses their sense mission. From his political nose realize their U.S. tour : after announcing in New York would accept the subordination to International Monetary Fund, Washington visited Santiago Canton to (who a week earlier had submitted his resignation to the Executive Secretary of the Human Rights Commission ) and Arturo Valenzuela (who issued the his undersecretary of state for inter-American affairs as he closed the door after saying goodbye to Carrió ). Amid the jumble of incompatibilities that trying to organize Alfonsin, the style of the Alliance but with even less related actors, not be ruled out that the proposed redemption of the CCL obtain an echo similar to that of four years ago, with no prospect of growth because the very Carrió not stand, but as an irreducible testimonial from rock to keep snapping. Another marginal stubborn is former Senator Eduardo Duhalde , who negotiated the support of his candidacy for Lucrecia Astiz, sister of ex-Marine arrested in Marcos Paz , and Promotions Union, which have created a Republican Movement and the Civil Military electoral command Votarun (military acronym for Voting States) . These New partners have convinced him that the retired personnel of the armed forces, security, police and prisons, national and provincial, plus their relatives and friends would add a universe of 2.5 million votes, something like 8 percent of general pattern. This support to reach 1.5 percent of voters in open primaries, and Mandatory Concurrent August 14 is conditioned to promise amnesty for those convicted and tried for crimes against humanity. have to see how they like his speech on Friday, in the past associated not only with justice amnesty, because something else had departed to his tiny Popular Union accompanying the Luis Barrionuevo of Camano, Graciela Camano Barrionuevo, and Hilda González de Duhalde Geronimo Venegas. The self-proclaimed candidate complies with the talk of him, which could pose nude and pregnant declared. Also the fight against the dreaded paleoizquierda threshold of 1.5 percent, which considers "proscriptive." to overcome their different parties, who find it easier to explain what unites and not what separates them, have teamed up. While not believe in elections and are looking forward to a good result, they want to participate as a means of disseminating their proposals and gain greater social legitimacy, a legitimate purpose as they come. Source:
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